The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

AI is transforming American manufacturing—but not without growing pains. New data shows that while firms face short-term productivity losses when adopting industrial AI, long-term gains are achievable with the right strategies and organizational alignment. Older firms struggle the most, especially if they abandon structured management practices during the transition. Younger, growth-focused companies, on the other hand, tend to adapt more effectively and see stronger returns over time.