Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D

Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D argues that traditional, incremental education research models are ill-equipped for an era defined by generative AI, data abundance, and rapid systemic disruption. Drawing inspiration from DARPA and ARPA-style R&D models, the authors propose re-architecting education research around agile, problem-focused teams, shared digital infrastructures, and milestone-based funding. Through examples of “ripe problems” and actionable recommendations for researchers, developers, funders, and system leaders, the paper outlines how education R&D can shift from reactive studies to anticipatory, transformation-enabling ecosystems.