Foreseeing Inroads to Instability: JNIM’s Expansion in West Africa

JNIM, a violent extremist group affiliated with al-Qaeda, is expanding its footprint across West Africa by exploiting weak governance, economic vulnerabilities, and ethnic divisions. The group’s strategy blends coercion, opportunistic alliances, and control over illicit trade networks, allowing it to gain influence without necessarily capturing territory. From smuggling fuel and gold to infiltrating marginalized communities, JNIM is embedding itself deeply into local dynamics. This expansion poses growing regional and global security concerns, especially as the group adapts to changing political and environmental conditions.