Decoupling Risks: How Semiconductor Export Controls Could Harm US Chipmakers and Innovation

The report outlines how expanded U.S. semiconductor export controls on China could unintentionally weaken American chipmakers. It explains that losing access to the Chinese market would sharply reduce U.S. revenue, which in turn limits the industry’s ability to fund critical R&D. Over time, this could diminish U.S. technological leadership, reduce high-skill jobs, and allow foreign competitors—especially in Asia—to capture greater market share. The analysis highlights how policy decisions designed for security purposes can have broad economic and innovation consequences.