The Risk of Coverage Loss for Medicaid Beneficiaries as the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Ends

States are required to keep people enrolled in Medicaid throughout the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) as a condition of receiving a temporary increase in the federal share of Medicaid costs. When the PHE ends — currently slated for December 2021, but could be extended — the enhanced federal funding will end and states will resume administering renewals for Medicaid eligibility, some of which have been pending for more than 16 months.

Nearly all 80 million people enrolled in Medicaid will have their eligibility re-determined, triggering a high risk of coverage losses that is almost certain to fall disproportionately on Black and Latinx individuals who have experienced significant harm and dislocation during the pandemic. This can be mitigated through thoughtful planning and execution by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), states, health plans, providers, consumers, and advocates. For those concerned about coverage and equity, the stakes could not be higher.